Quincy Institute / Responsible Statecraft

Qatar confirmed indirect US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing, with no direct negotiations planned. A cargo ship was struck by a projectile near the strait, and its crew abandoned the vessel with one person missing. Israel and Lebanon began a seventh round of US-brokered talks in Rome, focusing on pilot zones and cessation of hostilities. The Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s Najran airport. In Gaza, a mass funeral was held for 112 Palestinians recovered from rubble two years after an Israeli airstrike.

President Trump warned that new talks are Iran's 'last chance' to avoid escalation, but Tehran denied any direct negotiations, stating it is only discussing a safe-passage mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. The IRGC attacked a US military base in Kuwait with multiple drones, and a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile near the strait. The Board of Peace conditioned any Israeli withdrawal from Gaza on Hamas's complete disarmament, as the IDF killed two senior Hamas operatives in airstrikes. Defense Minister Katz reversed his on-air dismissal of the IDF West Bank chief after settler leader backlash.

The US completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal mediated by Iraq’s prime minister and threatened to attack Tel Aviv if the war expands. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continued to disrupt shipping. Israel conducted controlled blasts in south Lebanon despite a ceasefire framework, and a shooting near the West Bank settlement of Havat Gilad injured an Israeli man.

President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian bridges and power plants for each attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IRGC claimed a new strike on US bases in Jordan. The US is expected to sign a 30-year civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, drawing sharp Israeli objections. In Lebanon, the army deployed to a pilot zone as the prime minister visited a southern village, calling for a full Israeli withdrawal.

President Trump declared the US the 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% toll on all cargo traversing the waterway, as US forces struck an Iranian naval base and submarine maintenance facility. The UK proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization over an antisemitic arson campaign, and Yemen's Saudi-backed government bombed Sanaa airport to block an Iranian plane. The IDF killed a Hamas weapons smuggler in southern Gaza, and the UN accused Hamas of obstructing aid distribution.

Iran fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari gas tanker, amid the ongoing funeral procession for Supreme Leader Khamenei, which reached Qom. The IDF conducted extensive operations in southern Lebanon, while Hamas dissolved its Gaza government. Israel advanced a gender segregation bill and a national inquiry into the October 7 massacre.

Finance Minister Smotrich urged the establishment of three Israeli settlements in northern Gaza, while US-Iran indirect talks in Doha faced confusion over the format. The IDF killed a Hamas battalion commander in Rafah and a PIJ commander who held hostages. Iran prepared for Khamenei’s funeral with over 30 countries attending. The Iron Dome system was upgraded based on lessons from the Iran war.

President Trump warned Iran that he will do 'what I have to do' to prevent a nuclear weapon if Tehran does not abide by the emerging deal, while Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to maintain Israel's security zone in southern Lebanon ahead of direct Jerusalem-Beirut talks in Washington. Iran's top negotiator insisted the Strait of Hormuz will be managed by Tehran, and the Pentagon is seeking $80 billion from Congress for Iran war funding. The IDF confirmed killing an Oct. 7 Nukhba terrorist in a recent Gaza strike, and a Jewish man was critically wounded in a shooting in Montreal.

Prime Minister Netanyahu directed the IDF to expand control of Gaza to 70%, well beyond the terms of the existing truce, as Israeli strikes killed at least 14 in southern Lebanon. The US and Iran reached a tentative 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding, pending President Trump's approval, while CENTCOM denied Iranian claims of downing a US aircraft. Israel cut ties with UN Secretary-General Guterres after the UN added the IDF to a conflict-related sexual violence blacklist.

Hezbollah conducted 10 attacks against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon on April 30, the highest single-day total since the April 16 ceasefire, killing one IDF soldier and wounding two others. The escalation coincided with a US War Powers Resolution deadline on May 1 requiring congressional authorization for the Iran conflict, which the Trump administration argues is paused by the ceasefire. Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 15 people, including a Lebanese Army soldier and his family, while the IDF reduced artillery fire in Gaza under US pressure. The UK raised its terror threat level to 'severe' after an antisemitic stabbing in London, and the US delivered 6,500 tons of military equipment to Israel.