Operation Rising Lion

Since the prior SITREP, Iran's IRGC has seized two MSC container ships near the Strait of Hormuz — the first such seizures since the war began — releasing video of the operation, while the White House has stated the seizures do not violate the ceasefire. Separately, the IDF struck a building in south Lebanon, killing journalist Amal Khalil who worked for a pro-Hezbollah publication.

Since the prior SITREP, the US Navy has expanded its interdiction of Iranian oil tankers into Asian waters, citing a mine threat in the Strait of Hormuz that the Pentagon estimates could take up to six months to clear. Separately, IDF assessments confirm Iran retains hundreds of ballistic missile launchers and approximately 1,000 missiles largely intact despite US-Israeli strikes.

Since the prior SITREP, an Israeli airstrike confirmed by Al Jazeera killed Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil and at least four others in Lebanon; separately, unconfirmed reports of explosions in Tehran and Bandar Abbas, and anti-aircraft missile activation in Ahvaz, emerged in the final minutes of the coverage window. The US Senate rejected a fifth Democratic attempt to curtail Trump's war powers against Iran.

Since the prior SITREP, three material developments have emerged: the US House Armed Services Committee was briefed that Iran may have placed 20+ mines in or around the Strait of Hormuz requiring up to six months to clear; Hezbollah conducted loitering munition and missile attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon; and a Palestinian man was shot dead during a settler attack on a West Bank town near Ramallah.

Since the prior SITREP, Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil has been confirmed killed — not merely trapped — in the IDF strike at al-Tiri, southern Lebanon, with her body recovered after hours of search. Separately, US Navy Secretary John Phelan has departed the Trump administration immediately, amid ongoing maritime tensions with Iran.

Since the prior SITREP, a second French UNIFIL soldier (Cpl. Anicet Girardin) has died of wounds sustained in last week's Hezbollah attack on UN peacekeepers, raising the diplomatic stakes with France and NATO. Simultaneously, the IDF confirmed striking Hezbollah vehicles that crossed the Forward Defense Line near Tayri, killing two fighters, while Al-Manar reported a Hezbollah missile fired at IDF forces in Maroun Al-Ras — unconfirmed by independent sources.

Trump announced an open-ended ceasefire extension hours before the Wednesday deadline, conditioned on Iran producing a 'unified proposal,' while explicitly maintaining the naval blockade of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at an IDF position in Kfar Giladi — the first confirmed kinetic exchange on the Lebanon front since the prior SITREP — and the US issued fresh sanctions on 14 Iran-linked arms entities.

Iran's state media denies any delegation has departed for Islamabad while a Pakistani diplomatic source claims a preliminary Iranian delegation has arrived, creating unresolved ambiguity over whether Tuesday talks are alive as the ceasefire expires Wednesday. The IEA has declared the Hormuz closure the worst energy crisis in history, a Mossad officer was killed outside Israel during the war, and Israeli forces are escalating demolitions in southern Lebanon under ceasefire cover.

The US Navy seized the Iranian cargo vessel MV Touska in the Sea of Oman/Strait of Hormuz area, prompting the IRGC to threaten retaliation and Iran's Foreign Ministry to accuse Washington of ceasefire violations. Simultaneously, Iran has not confirmed participation in the next round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad despite Vance's arrival in Pakistan, placing the diplomatic track in acute uncertainty.