The UAE announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, fracturing the oil cartel amid the Hormuz crisis, while the IDF demolished two vast Hezbollah attack tunnels in southern Lebanon built with direct Iranian guidance. Hezbollah launched coordinated drone strikes on IDF positions, and Lebanese Army soldiers were injured in an Israeli airstrike during a rescue operation.

Top Lines

The UAE will withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, stripping the cartel of its third-largest producer and signaling a historic fracture as Gulf states navigate the Hormuz blockade.
The IDF destroyed two Hezbollah tunnels in Qantara spanning 2 km and reaching 25 meters deep, built with 'direct guidance' from Iran and intended for Radwan Force attacks on Israel.
Hezbollah launched multiple explosive drone attacks on IDF troops in southern Lebanon, hitting a Merkava tank and a bulldozer, while Lebanese Army soldiers were wounded in an Israeli strike on Majdal Zoun.

1IranIRGC Dominates Wartime Decision-Making; Tehran-Moscow Flights Resume
2LebanonIDF Demolishes Iranian-Guided Tunnels; Hezbollah Drone Strikes Hit IDF Assets
3GazaHamas Commander Killed in Gaza City Strike
4West BankDetentions and Raids in Hebron and Qalqilya

Regional overview — top story per area.

Situational Report

The energy and kinetic theaters both saw structural shifts: the UAE's OPEC exit fractures the cartel's wartime cohesion, while the IDF's demolition of Iranian-guided tunnels in Qantara marks the largest single tunnel operation since the ceasefire. Hezbollah's drone campaign persisted with coordinated strikes on IDF armor and engineering assets, and Lebanese state forces were caught in the crossfire. Diplomatically, US-Iran talks remain stalled, with Trump claiming Iran is in a 'state of collapse' and Tehran insisting it remains on a war footing.

Iran

IRGC Dominates Wartime Decision-Making; Tehran-Moscow Flights Resume

IRGC Consolidation — The IRGC has shored up its wartime power, blunting the role of Supreme Leader Khamenei, according to experts cited by the Times of Israel. The IRGC, not Mojtaba Khamenei, is assessed to dominate deliberations, resulting in an uncompromising stance in negotiations. Times of Israel
War Footing Maintained — Iranian Army Spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia stated Iran remains on a war footing despite the ceasefire, warning of a 'crushing response' to any new aggression. IRNA
Tehran-Moscow Flights Resume — Direct flights between Tehran and Moscow resumed after a two-month suspension caused by the war, IRNA reported. IRNA
Internet Curbs Eased — Iran's Supreme National Security Council approved the use of an 'Internet Pro' system to preserve businesses during the crisis, easing a blackout that has lasted three months. Times of Israel
Oil Export Rationing — Iran is reactivating a derelict tanker as Kharg Island storage nears capacity, rationing export capacity under the blockade. TLDR Iran SITREP

Lebanon / Northern Front

IDF Demolishes Iranian-Guided Tunnels; Hezbollah Drone Strikes Hit IDF Assets

Tunnel Demolition — The IDF destroyed two Hezbollah tunnels in Qantara, southern Lebanon, with a combined length of 2 km and depths of 25 meters, using 450 tons of explosives. The tunnels contained over 30 rooms and 30 operational shafts, and were built with 'direct guidance' from Iran. One tunnel was recently used by Hezbollah's Radwan Force to plan attacks on Israel. IDF (English)Times of Israel Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah Drone Attacks — Hezbollah launched a series of coordinated drone strikes.

Merkava tank: Directly hit in Qantara Military Media Statement 3.
IDF bulldozer: Struck while demolishing homes in Bint Jbeil Statement 1.
IDF soldiers: Targeted with a squadron of attack drones in Al-Taybeh Statement 4.
IDF confirmation: Several explosive drones detonated near troops without causing injuries Al-Manar TV IDF (English)Times of Israel.

Lebanese Army Casualties — Two Lebanese Army soldiers were injured in an Israeli airstrike targeting a patrol with Civil Defense members and two bulldozers in Majdal Zoun during a rescue operation. Three Civil Defense members were trapped under rubble. Al-Manar TV Bint Jbeil News
Israeli Airstrikes — Israeli aircraft struck multiple towns including Jwaya, Al-Tiri, Al-Shihabiya, Kfar Tibnit, Jouaiya, Al-Shehabiyeh, Teir Dibba, Al-Bazouriyeh, Wadi Jilo, and Al-Qantara. Phosphorus bombing was reported on Yahmar Shaqif. Al-Manar TV Quds News Network War Monitors
Evacuation Warnings — The IDF issued urgent evacuation warnings for residents of more than a dozen villages and towns in southern Lebanon, citing Hezbollah ceasefire violations. Behold Israel Al Arabiya
Netanyahu's Drone Countermeasure — Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a 'special project' ordered two weeks ago to counter Hezbollah drones, stating it will take time but will eradicate the threat. Times of Israel

Gaza

Hamas Commander Killed in Gaza City Strike

Targeted Killing — Palestinian reports indicated three people were killed in an airstrike in Gaza City, including Iyad al-Shanbari, a commander in Hamas's military wing. Israel Hayom

West Bank

Detentions and Raids in Hebron and Qalqilya

Hebron Detentions — Israeli forces detained two Palestinians at the Kharasa Junction south of Dura, south of Hebron. Quds News Network
Qalqilya Raid — Israeli forces stormed the city of Qalqilya. Quds News Network
Jerusalem Raid — Heavily deployed Israeli forces raided the Old City of Jerusalem and detained a Palestinian man. Quds News Network

Multilateral Institutions

UAE Exits OPEC; GCC Summit Convenes; US-Iran Talks Stall

UAE OPEC Withdrawal — The UAE announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, a historic blow to the cartel. The decision follows long-standing disputes over production quotas and reflects a deepening rift with Saudi Arabia. Brent crude traded above $111 a barrel. Analysts warned the move could trigger a bitter price war and marks 'the beginning of the end of OPEC.' Associated Press Reuters BBC News Washington Post Times of Israel Al Jazeera
GCC Summit — Gulf leaders gathered in Jeddah for an extraordinary consultative summit, their first in-person meeting since the war began. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chaired the session, which discussed regional and international developments. Qatar warned against a 'frozen conflict.' Al Jazeera Al Arabiya
US-Iran Talks Stalled — Peace efforts appeared at a standstill. The US is considering Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing a nuclear deal, but Trump is reportedly unlikely to accept it. Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran informed him they are in a 'state of collapse' and want the strait opened. US intelligence agencies are examining how Iran would react if Trump declares a unilateral victory. Associated Press Al Arabiya Reuters War Monitors
Trump Approval — A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval rating dipped to a record low amid the war and inflation, with only 22% backing his performance on the cost of living. Al Jazeera
Oil Market Dynamics — Hormuz transit remains at 4 ships/day (4% pre-war), while Bab al-Mandab is at 39/day (115% pre-war). Brent backwardation holds at $7.66. Iran is bypassing sanctions by transferring oil to China overland via railway, aiming for over 2 million barrels per day. TLDR Iran SITREP Behold Israel
Diplomatic Channels — Turkey pitched itself as a Hezbollah-Lebanon mediator. Pakistan's defense minister condemned Israeli aggression as destroying regional peace efforts. German Chancellor Merz expressed concern that the US lacks a clear exit strategy. TLDR Iran SITREP IRNA War Monitors
Iraq PM Nomination — The Coordination Framework nominated little-known businessman Ali al-Zaidi for prime minister. FDD
Sanctions and Finance — The US Treasury partially suspended cash flights to Baghdad due to Iranian-linked militia threats. The FDD argued US strikes on China's Iranian oil trade are insufficient. FDD

Analysis

Trend

The tempo of kinetic activity on the Lebanon front remains elevated, consistent with the past week's pattern of daily Hezbollah drone strikes and Israeli airstrikes.
However, the scale of the tunnel demolition operation represents a significant escalation in Israeli ground activity, moving beyond reactive strikes to deliberate infrastructure dismantlement.
The diplomatic track has stalled further, with the UAE's OPEC exit introducing a new fracture in Gulf cohesion that was not present in prior windows.
The protagonist set has expanded to include the UAE as a disruptive actor in energy markets, while the IRGC's consolidation of power in Tehran solidifies a harder-line negotiating posture.

Narrative

The dominant narrative pushed by Israel and the US frames the tunnel demolition as a necessary defensive measure against Iranian-directed Hezbollah attack plans, reinforcing the 'Iran as puppet master' storyline.
Hezbollah's military media counters with a narrative of successful drone strikes on IDF assets, portraying the group as effectively resisting Israeli incursions.
The UAE's OPEC exit is being spun by Washington as a win for Trump's anti-cartel stance, while Saudi-aligned outlets emphasize the cartel's weakening.
Tehran's state media projects resilience, highlighting resumed Moscow flights and military readiness, while Trump's 'state of collapse' claim aims to undermine that narrative.
The gap between the US portrayal of Iranian desperation and Iran's public posture of defiance remains wide.

Synthesis

The simultaneous tunnel demolition and OPEC fracture are not coincidental but reflect a broader realignment: Israel is exploiting the ceasefire to degrade Hezbollah's strategic infrastructure with impunity, while the UAE's exit signals that Gulf states are prioritizing national economic interests over cartel solidarity in a prolonged crisis. This dual dynamic pressures Iran on both military and economic fronts, but also risks fragmenting the anti-Iran coalition. A counter-reading is that the UAE's move is purely opportunistic and unrelated to the war; however, the timing amid the Hormuz blockade and GCC summit suggests a calculated signal to both Riyadh and Washington that the UAE will not be constrained by OPEC quotas when its own export capacity is threatened.

OSINT Indicators — Watch

1.Sentinel-1 SAR imagery over Qantara (33.28°N 35.48°E) — verify tunnel demolition crater dimensions and debris field against IDF claims of 450 tons of explosives used.
2.FlightRadar24 tracking of Mahan Air IR-1149 on Tehran-Moscow route — confirms resumption of direct flights after two-month suspension and potential diplomatic cargo.
3.Lloyd's List Intelligence vessel-tracking data for UAE-flagged tankers in Fujairah anchorage — monitor for loading activity surge post-OPEC exit announcement on May 1.

Predictions — +24h

Status Quo

1.Hezbollah will continue daily drone attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon through May 1, maintaining pressure without triggering a full Israeli ground offensive.0.75
2.The US will formally reject Iran's proposal to decouple the Strait of Hormuz from nuclear talks within 48 hours, prolonging the diplomatic stalemate.0.80
3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through May 5, with no resumption of direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.70

Escalation

1.Iran will conduct a symbolic missile or drone strike on a non-Israeli target (e.g., a US base in Syria or Iraq) in retaliation for the tunnel demolition, breaking the ceasefire before May 2.0.25
2.Saudi Arabia will announce a unilateral production increase within 72 hours in response to the UAE's OPEC exit, triggering an oil price war that crashes Brent below $90.0.30
3.Hezbollah will successfully strike an IDF command post or concentration of troops with a drone swarm, causing multiple Israeli fatalities and prompting a major Israeli ground operation north of the Litani River.0.20