FDD

President Trump publicly ordered the US Navy to shoot and kill any vessel mining the Strait of Hormuz, while Israeli Defense Minister Katz declared Israel is prepared to resume war against Iran and is awaiting a US 'green light' to strike Iranian energy infrastructure and the new supreme leader. Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiating team amid reported IRGC interference, further complicating ceasefire diplomacy.

Since the prior SITREP, a second French UNIFIL soldier has died of wounds sustained in last week's Hezbollah attack on UN peacekeepers, and an IDF strike in southern Lebanon wounded journalists at the at-Tiri/Tayri site — with the Papal Ambassador's convoy, UNIFIL, the Lebanese Army, and the Red Cross now present at the scene. The White House has clarified that Trump set no specific deadline for the Iran ceasefire extension, and CENTCOM confirmed it ordered 29 vessels to turn back in the past 24 hours under the Iran naval blockade.

Since the prior SITREP, Iran has executed a former nuclear agency employee convicted of spying for Israel, and Trump announced that eight women protesters facing execution in Iran will be spared. Separately, dozens of Israeli settler activists breached the Syrian border before being escorted out by the IDF, while Lebanon's ceasefire talks Thursday carry a new Israeli demand to repeal the anti-normalisation law.

Since the prior SITREP, the IRGC has conducted the most significant kinetic maritime escalation of the current cycle: seizing two vessels and firing on at least one additional ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran explicitly framing the action as retaliation for the US capture of the Touska. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched a drone at IDF troops in southern Lebanon — intercepted by Israeli air defenses — marking a fresh ceasefire violation.

Trump announced an open-ended ceasefire extension hours before the Wednesday deadline, conditioned on Iran producing a 'unified proposal,' while explicitly maintaining the naval blockade of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at an IDF position in Kfar Giladi — the first confirmed kinetic exchange on the Lebanon front since the prior SITREP — and the US issued fresh sanctions on 14 Iran-linked arms entities.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has publicly threatened to 'reveal new cards on the battlefield' and rejected negotiations under threat, materially hardening Tehran's posture since the prior SITREP's tentative signal of Islamabad attendance. Trump has confirmed the Hormuz blockade remains in force, Hormuz transits have collapsed to three vessels in 12 hours, and Pakistan-brokered talks are described as hanging by a thread.

Since the prior SITREP, a cluster of covert Iranian operations has come into focus: 40 Israelis were detained at Moscow's airport in an apparent Russia-Iran alignment signal, a foiled IRGC assassination network in Azerbaijan reportedly resulted in senior IRGC commanders being killed, and the UAE dismantled an Iran-linked cell while the US charged an Iranian national with arms trafficking to Sudan. On the diplomatic track, Iranian sources now indicate Tehran will attend Islamabad talks, a partial reversal from the prior 'no decision' posture.

The US Navy seized the Iranian cargo vessel MV Touska in the Sea of Oman/Strait of Hormuz area, prompting the IRGC to threaten retaliation and Iran's Foreign Ministry to accuse Washington of ceasefire violations. Simultaneously, Iran has not confirmed participation in the next round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad despite Vance's arrival in Pakistan, placing the diplomatic track in acute uncertainty.