Trump ‘Seriously Considering’ Resuming Iran Combat as UAE’s Secret Strikes Revealed (May 12, 0609 UTC, 0909 Israel) (Morning Edition)
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US President Donald Trump is seriously considering resuming combat operations against Iran after rejecting Tehran’s latest ceasefire proposal as “unacceptable,” while reports reveal the UAE secretly struck an Iranian oil refinery during the war. In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike killed six civilians in Kafr Dounine, and Hezbollah claimed a guided-missile hit on an IDF Merkava tank. The Knesset passed a law establishing a special tribunal and allowing the death penalty for October 7 perpetrators, and EU foreign ministers approved sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and Hamas leaders after Hungary lifted its veto.
Top Lines
- Trump is “seriously considering resuming war” with Iran and convened his national security team to discuss options, after calling Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal “unacceptable.”
- The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE secretly carried out strikes on Iran, including an April attack on the Lavan Island oil refinery, with Washington quietly welcoming the involvement.
- An Israeli airstrike on a house in Kafr Dounine, southern Lebanon, killed six civilians and wounded seven, while Hezbollah claimed a guided-missile hit on a Merkava tank in Al-Bayyada.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
The US-Iran ceasefire is on “life support” as President Trump, having rejected Iran’s latest proposal, is seriously weighing a return to combat operations and met with his national security team to discuss strike options. The revelation that the UAE secretly struck Iran’s Lavan Island refinery in April, with US approval, adds a new dimension to the conflict. In southern Lebanon, violence persists despite the April 16 ceasefire: an Israeli airstrike killed six civilians in Kafr Dounine, and Hezbollah claimed a guided-missile hit on an IDF Merkava tank. The IDF reported eliminating over 350 terrorists and striking 1,100 Hezbollah targets in recent weeks. The Knesset passed a law creating a special military tribunal and allowing the death penalty for October 7 perpetrators. EU foreign ministers approved sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and Hamas leaders after Hungary’s new government lifted its veto. Pakistan denied reports it hosted Iranian military aircraft, while CBS News cited US officials confirming the presence of Iranian RC-130 reconnaissance planes at Nur Khan Air Base.
Iran
Iran
Trump Weighs Resuming Combat Operations
US President Donald Trump is “seriously considering resuming war” with Iran and convened his national security team at the White House to discuss options, according to CNN and other reports Jerusalem PostHaaretzAl Arabiya English. Trump described Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal as “unacceptable” and “stupid,” and said the ceasefire is “on life support” Arab News. Speaking at the White House, Trump said, “We will have a complete victory. We already, in theory, have a complete victory from a military standpoint” Behold Israel. He is expected to make a decision after his trip to China on May 14 TLDR Iran SITREP.
UAE Secretly Struck Iran
The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates secretly launched military strikes on Iran during the war, including an attack on the Lavan Island oil refinery in early April that caused a significant fire and disrupted production Jerusalem PostTimes of IsraelYnetnews. The UAE did not publicly confirm its participation, but the Pentagon did not object and Trump welcomed the involvement of another country in the fight N12 ChatMiddle East Eye. Iran retaliated by targeting an Emirati refinery Behold Israel.
Iranian Leadership Warns of Surprise Response
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran is prepared for “all options” and warned enemies will be “surprised” by Tehran’s response to any aggression IRNATimes of Israel. Senior advisor Ali Akbar Velayati mocked Trump, saying he would be “defeated in diplomacy similar to the battlefield” IRNA.
Pakistan Hosted Iranian Military Aircraft
CBS News reported that Pakistan allowed Iranian military aircraft, including an RC-130 reconnaissance plane, to park at Nur Khan Air Base near Rawalpindi, potentially shielding them from US strikes while Islamabad mediated between Tehran and Washington Times of IsraelBehold IsraelIran International. Pakistan’s foreign ministry rejected the report as “misleading” and aimed at undermining peace efforts Al Arabiya EnglishAl-Manar TV. Iran also moved civilian aircraft to Afghanistan Middle East Eye.
US Sanctions and UN Diplomacy
The US imposed sanctions on 12 individuals and entities over Iranian oil sales IRNA. Iran’s deputy foreign minister criticized a US-backed UN Security Council draft on the Strait of Hormuz as an attempt to deflect from the root cause of tensions IRNA.
Israel Supplied Iron Dome to UAE
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz publicly confirmed that Israel supplied the UAE with Iron Dome missile defense systems during the Iran war, the first official acknowledgment Times of Israel.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Civilian Casualties in Kafr Dounine
An Israeli airstrike on an inhabited house in Kafr Dounine, southern Lebanon, killed six civilians and wounded seven others, according to the Lebanese National News Agency Quds News NetworkMiddle East Eye. The strike occurred overnight on May 11–12.
Hezbollah Claims Merkava Hit
Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV reported that Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a Merkava tank in Al-Bayyada town with a guided missile at 23:20 on May 11, and it was seen burning Al-Manar TV. The IDF has not commented on the claim.
IDF Operations and Interceptions
The IDF announced that in recent weeks it has eliminated more than 350 terrorists in southern Lebanon who posed a threat to Israeli civilians and troops, and struck over 1,100 Hezbollah targets, including military structures, weapons storage facilities, and loaded launchers IDF Official. On May 11, the Israeli Air Force intercepted a suspicious aerial target in southern Lebanon where IDF troops operate; sirens in Majdal Shams were determined to be a false identification IDF OfficialNews 0404 IL.
Continued Strikes and Artillery Fire
Israeli warplanes raided Al-Rihan town Al-Manar TV, and airstrikes were reported on Blat, Hariss, and Sojod Bint Jbeil News. Artillery shelling targeted Al-Jumayjimah, Touline, and Braachit Bint Jbeil News. Israeli airstrikes also caused massive destruction in Sohmor Quds News Network.
Lebanese President Seeks US Pressure
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asked the United States to pressure Israel to stop attacks and adhere to the ceasefire Iran International.
UN Reports Deadly Weekend
The UN reported over 100 strikes in Lebanon in 24 hours and 87 people killed over the weekend. The WHO recorded 158 attacks on healthcare since March 2, resulting in 108 deaths and 249 injuries UN News.
Residents Refuse to Flee
Despite escalating Israeli strikes, residents in southern Lebanon say they will not leave again Al Jazeera English.
Gaza
Gaza
Knesset Passes Law for October 7 Trials and Death Penalty
The Knesset passed a law establishing a special military tribunal to try approximately 300 Palestinian terrorists captured during the October 7, 2023, invasion. The law allows for the death penalty and public trials, defining the acts as crimes against the Jewish people, crimes against humanity, and war crimes BBC NewsAl Jazeera EnglishArab NewsYnetnewsTimes of Israel. The measure passed 93-0 in the 120-seat Knesset. Justice Minister Yariv Levin called it “one of the most important moments” of the current government Times of Israel. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said, “Whoever massacred and murdered will pay the price” News 0404 IL. Rights groups warned the bill makes the death penalty easier to impose and strips fair trial protections Al Jazeera English.
UN Reports Continued Violence
The UN noted continued violence in Gaza but provided no specific casualty figures in this reporting window UN News.
West Bank
West Bank
EU Sanctions on Violent Settlers Approved
EU foreign ministers approved sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and settler organizations, as well as Hamas leaders, after Hungary’s new government lifted its predecessor’s veto BBC NewsWashington PostAl Jazeera EnglishTimes of Israel. The sanctions include travel bans and asset freezes. Prime Minister Netanyahu called the EU “morally bankrupt” for drawing symmetry between Israel and Hamas Times of Israel. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir denounced the EU as “antisemitic” Al Arabiya English.
Smotrich Proposes Retaliatory Land Transfers
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced a retaliatory plan to transfer “strategic” lands from Areas A and B—under Palestinian Authority administration—to Area C, under full Israeli control, in response to the EU sanctions. The proposal was presented to Prime Minister Netanyahu Quds News Network.
Knesset Advances Antiquity Bill
The Knesset advanced a controversial West Bank antiquity bill in first reading; critics say it amounts to de facto annexation, while supporters argue it is necessary to preserve the territory’s unique heritage Times of Israel.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
US-Israel-UAE Coordination
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz publicly confirmed Israel supplied the UAE with Iron Dome systems during the Iran war, the first official acknowledgment Times of Israel. The revelation of UAE’s secret strikes on Iran underscores deepening trilateral military coordination Jerusalem PostMiddle East Eye.
Pakistan’s Mediator Role Under Scrutiny
Pakistan’s role as a mediator between the US and Iran is questioned after reports it hosted Iranian military aircraft. Pakistan denied the allegations, calling them “misleading” Al Arabiya English[CBS News via Behold Israel].
EU Sanctions Package
The EU approved sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and Hamas leaders after Hungary lifted its veto, marking a significant diplomatic move BBC NewsWashington Post.
Lebanon Appeals to US
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asked the US to pressure Israel to halt attacks and adhere to the ceasefire Iran International.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
Anti-Zionist Protest in NYC Jewish Neighborhood
Anti-Zionist protesters marched through a Jewish neighborhood in Brooklyn, New York, chanting for intifada during a demonstration against an Israel real estate event. Scuffles with residents occurred, and police kept the two sides separate Times of Israel.
Israel Blocks Antisemitic YouTuber
Israel denied entry to antisemitic YouTuber Tyler Oliveira. Diaspora Affairs Minister said, “Whoever comes here with the goal of sowing hatred can go back where they came from” Times of Israel.
Israel in Africa
World — Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World — Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World — Europe
Israel in Europe
World — Europe
UK Political Turmoil
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under pressure to resign after local election losses. Over 70 Labour MPs publicly called for his resignation, and Deputy PM David Lammy and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper urged him to step aside Times of IsraelWar Monitors. Starmer vowed to remain in office Times of Israel.
EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers
EU foreign ministers approved sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and Hamas leaders after Hungary’s new government lifted the veto BBC NewsWashington Post. (See West Bank section for details.)
Israel in the Americas
World — Americas
Israel in the Americas
World — Americas
US Domestic Politics
Trump proposed a federal gas tax suspension as pump prices hit $4.50, threatening midterm support TLDR Iran SITREP.
Haiti Gang Violence
Renewed clashes between rival gangs in Port-au-Prince forced hundreds to flee Al Jazeera English.
Bolivia Unrest
Widespread road blockades disrupted travel across major cities as protesters demanded the president’s resignation. A warrant was issued for ex-President Evo Morales’s arrest after he failed to appear in court on charges of fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl while in office Al Jazeera English.
California Ex-Mayor Admits China Agent Role
A former mayor of a wealthy Los Angeles suburb admitted acting as an agent of China, promoting pro-China propaganda at the behest of Chinese officials Al Jazeera English.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World — Asia-Pacific
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World — Asia-Pacific
Trump-Xi Summit Anticipation
Trump expressed anticipation for his upcoming trip to China, saying “Great things will happen for both countries” N12 ChatBehold Israel. Cybersecurity may be on the agenda FDD.
Pakistan Hosts Iranian Aircraft
Pakistan allowed Iranian military aircraft, including an RC-130 reconnaissance plane, to park at Nur Khan Air Base, while mediating between the US and Iran. Pakistan denied the report [CBS News via Behold Israel]Al Arabiya English. (See Iran section for details.)
Syria Restores Credit Card Payments
Syria restored credit card payments in an effort to rejoin the global economy Al Jazeera English.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World — MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World — MENA (Other)
Syria Restores Credit Card Payments
Syria restored credit card payments as part of efforts to rejoin the global economy Al Jazeera English.
Iranian Gathering at Tehran Synagogue
A gathering was held at Tehran’s Rafinia Synagogue, damaged in Israeli and American strikes, to honor those killed in the war IRNA.
Analysis
Trend
The Iran-Israel ceasefire is accelerating toward collapse, not merely eroding. In the trailing seven days, the tempo of US-Iran diplomatic engagement has been replaced by overt military posturing and kinetic activity. Trump's shift from rejecting proposals to 'seriously considering' combat, coupled with the UAE's secret strikes revelation, marks a qualitative escalation. The protagonist set has expanded: the UAE is now an acknowledged combatant, and Pakistan's mediator role is compromised by its hosting of Iranian aircraft. Hezbollah's attacks in Lebanon persist at a steady operational tempo, but the civilian toll in Kafr Dounine signals a potential shift toward less discriminate Israeli targeting. The prior window's focus on ceasefire negotiations has given way to preparations for renewed war.
Narrative
The Trump administration is driving a narrative of Iranian intransigence and military inevitability, framing the ceasefire as 'on life support' and victory as already achieved militarily. This framing is winning in US and Israeli media, sidelining the Iranian narrative of diplomatic openness and warning of 'surprise' responses. The UAE's covert role, now public, reinforces the US-led coalition narrative but also exposes a gap: the UAE has not officially acknowledged its strikes, creating a credibility deficit. Iran's framing, amplified by IRNA and Al-Manar, casts itself as the victim of US-led aggression and Pakistan as a neutral mediator, but the RC-130 revelation undermines that claim. The gap between reporting and evidence is widest around the UAE's role—the WSJ report lacks official confirmation, yet it is treated as fact in Western outlets.
Synthesis
The UAE's secret strikes, now public, are not just a historical footnote but a deliberate signal of a broader Sunni Arab alignment with Israel and the US against Iran, likely intended to pressure Tehran into concessions. The timing of the leak, as Trump weighs resuming combat, suggests a coordinated effort to demonstrate that Iran faces a multi-front coalition, not just the US and Israel. A counter-reading is that the leak is an unauthorized disclosure that complicates UAE-Iran relations and undermines mediation. However, the fact that the Pentagon did not object and Trump welcomed the involvement indicates the administration sees strategic value in making the UAE's role known, even at the cost of diplomatic blowback.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 SAR imagery of Lavan Island oil refinery (orbit 174, descending pass ~03:30 UTC) for burn scar extent and reconstruction activity since the reported April UAE strike.
- 2.Monitor FlightRadar24 for Iranian RC-130 tail numbers at Nur Khan Air Base, Rawalpindi, to verify continued presence or departure after Pakistan's denial of hosting Iranian military aircraft.
- 3.Track the @beholdisraelchannel Telegram posting cadence for any pre-notification of US force movements in the Persian Gulf or CENTCOM AOR, given the channel's sourcing on Trump's deliberations.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 48 hours, the IDF will conduct additional airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, resulting in at least 5 reported casualties.0.85
- 2.Before May 14, Trump will publicly announce a deadline for Iran to accept ceasefire terms or face renewed US military action.0.70
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through May 19, with no resumption of direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.55
Escalation
- 1.Within 72 hours, Iran will launch a retaliatory strike against UAE territory, likely targeting an energy asset, in response to the revealed Lavan Island attack.0.35
- 2.By May 15, Hezbollah will conduct a mass-casualty attack on IDF forces in Lebanon, killing at least 10 soldiers, prompting a major Israeli ground incursion.0.25
- 3.Within 24 hours, the US will strike Iranian military assets in Syria or Iraq in response to IRGC threats, breaking the ceasefire.0.15