Al-Manar TV (Hezbollah)

Since the prior SITREP, a senior Iranian official has told AFP that Tehran has begun charging transit fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz — a significant operational shift from the prior posture of threatening closure. Separately, dozens of Israeli settlers crossed into Syrian territory in the Golan Heights and barricaded themselves on a rooftop, representing a new flashpoint not covered in the prior SITREP.

Since the prior SITREP, the US Embassy in Beirut has issued an urgent departure advisory for American citizens in Lebanon, while Hezbollah formally declared it is no longer bound by the ceasefire and claimed four additional drone/glider operations against IDF forces in southern Lebanon. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt simultaneously stated on Fox News that Iran must transfer its enriched uranium to the United States.

Since the prior SITREP, Israeli settlers opened fire on a school in Ramallah killing two people — the most significant new lethal development in the West Bank this cycle. Separately, Hezbollah claimed a drone strike on an Israeli artillery emplacement in Al-Bayyada, and Israeli aircraft conducted a second strike on Al-Tiri in southern Lebanon with reported casualties.

Since the prior SITREP, the IRGC has conducted the most significant kinetic maritime escalation of the current cycle: seizing two vessels and firing on at least one additional ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran explicitly framing the action as retaliation for the US capture of the Touska. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched a drone at IDF troops in southern Lebanon — intercepted by Israeli air defenses — marking a fresh ceasefire violation.

Iran's state media denies any delegation has departed for Islamabad while a Pakistani diplomatic source claims a preliminary Iranian delegation has arrived, creating unresolved ambiguity over whether Tuesday talks are alive as the ceasefire expires Wednesday. The IEA has declared the Hormuz closure the worst energy crisis in history, a Mossad officer was killed outside Israel during the war, and Israeli forces are escalating demolitions in southern Lebanon under ceasefire cover.

Since the prior SITREP, a cluster of covert Iranian operations has come into focus: 40 Israelis were detained at Moscow's airport in an apparent Russia-Iran alignment signal, a foiled IRGC assassination network in Azerbaijan reportedly resulted in senior IRGC commanders being killed, and the UAE dismantled an Iran-linked cell while the US charged an Iranian national with arms trafficking to Sudan. On the diplomatic track, Iranian sources now indicate Tehran will attend Islamabad talks, a partial reversal from the prior 'no decision' posture.

The US Navy seized the Iranian cargo vessel MV Touska in the Sea of Oman/Strait of Hormuz area, prompting the IRGC to threaten retaliation and Iran's Foreign Ministry to accuse Washington of ceasefire violations. Simultaneously, Iran has not confirmed participation in the next round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad despite Vance's arrival in Pakistan, placing the diplomatic track in acute uncertainty.