US Strikes Iran for Second Night, IRGC Hits Bases in Kuwait and Bahrain as Khamenei Funeral Reaches Mashhad (Jul 9, 0632 UTC, 0932 Israel) (Morning Edition)
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BLUF
The US launched a second consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting over 90 sites including railway bridges and the Bushehr refinery, while the IRGC claimed missile and drone attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Trump declared the ceasefire over and threatened further escalation, even as he acknowledged an Iranian outreach for a deal. Khamenei's funeral procession reached Mashhad for burial, drawing millions of mourners and foreign dignitaries.
Top Lines
- US military confirms second wave of strikes on Iran, hitting railway infrastructure, refineries, and Hormuz-area targets; Iran reports at least 3 killed and 78 injured across two days.
- IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, calling it the first stage of a 'punitive response' to US attacks.
- Trump says Iran 'wants to make a deal so badly' but expresses doubt about their trustworthiness, while threatening that any Iranian retaliation will be met with a response 'twenty times stronger.'
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
The US-Iran conflict escalated sharply overnight as American forces struck over 90 targets inside Iran for the second night running, hitting the Tehran-Mashhad railway, the Bushehr refinery, and sites near Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. Iran's IRGC retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while also claiming to have targeted Patriot systems and fuel depots. President Trump, returning from the NATO summit in Ankara, said Iran had called seeking a deal but questioned their sincerity, and warned of devastating consequences for further Iranian attacks. The funeral of Supreme Leader Khamenei continued in Mashhad, with the railway suspension complicating the arrival of mourners.
Iran
Iran
US Strikes Second Night
The US military conducted a second wave of strikes on Iran overnight, targeting over 90 sites according to US Central Command Times of Israel. The strikes hit the Tehran-Mashhad railway, suspending passenger services as millions of mourners converged on Mashhad for Khamenei's burial Al-Manar TV. Cruise missiles struck two railway bridges in northern Iran, the first infrastructure attacks since the April 8 ceasefire Behold Israel. Other targets included the Bushehr refinery News 0404 IL, the coastal city of Chabahar Al-Manar TV, and sites near Bandar Abbas and Abu Musa Island in the Strait of Hormuz News 0404 IL. Iran's Health Ministry reported 14 killed and 78 injured across the two days of strikes, with three fatalities in the latest wave Al-Manar TVIsrael Hayom.
IRGC Retaliation
The IRGC claimed missile and drone strikes on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, describing it as the first stage of a 'punitive response' IRNA. The Iranian Army separately stated it targeted Patriot missile systems in Kuwait, satellite receivers in Qatar, and US military fuel depots in Bahrain Al-Manar TV. Air raid sirens were confirmed in all three GCC states TLDR Iran SITREP.
Diplomatic and Political Reactions
President Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, said Iran 'wants to make a deal so badly' and had called recently, but expressed doubt about their trustworthiness, saying 'I don't know if they're worthy' Behold IsraelBint Jbeil News. He threatened that any Iranian retaliation would be met with a response 'twenty times stronger' Bint Jbeil News. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf warned the US that 'bullying and breaking commitments won't come without costs' IRNA, and Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Trump 'understands the language of force better' IRNA. Foreign Minister Araghchi discussed Hormuz developments with his Qatari counterpart IRNA.
Khamenei Funeral
The funeral procession reached Mashhad, with over 4,700 foreign guests from 27 countries attending the final ceremonies Al-Manar TV. The suspension of the Tehran-Mashhad railway complicated travel for mourners Al-Manar TV. Iranian President Pezeshkian thanked Armenian PM Pashinyan for attending and pledging stronger ties IRNA.
Other Developments
Iran condemned US and Israeli attacks on its space facilities at a UN working group meeting IRNA. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baqaei accused the US of violating the Islamabad agreement framework IRNA.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Hezbollah Leader Rejects Framework Agreement
Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem, speaking at a ceremony honoring Khamenei, called on the Lebanese government to withdraw from the framework agreement with Israel, claiming it 'fully serves the Israeli enemy' and that even Israel could not have drafted such an agreement without US and Lebanese cooperation Al-Manar TV. He warned Hezbollah would not be drawn into strife but would not allow anyone to target the group Al-Manar TV.
Israeli-Lebanese Tensions
Lebanon is demanding Israel fulfill its pledge for a pullout pilot from southern Lebanon or it will skip upcoming Rome talks, according to a source Times of Israel. The IDF has not yet moved, and the army reported capturing a Radwan member and killing another Times of Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel did not ask anyone's permission to enter Lebanon and does not need permission to stay, calling it a right and duty to defend against Hezbollah Israel Hayom.
Gaza
Gaza
Israeli Military Operations
Israeli artillery shelled eastern areas of Al-Maghazi and Al-Bureij camps in central Gaza Quds News Network. Artillery and quadcopter fire were reported in the Al-Tuffah neighborhood northeast of Gaza City Quds News Network. Israeli forces detonated residential buildings east of Gaza City Quds News Network.
Detentions and Crossings
Gaza's Crossings Authority said Israeli forces detained two Palestinians, Anas Mohammed Abdulrahman Al-Hajj and Osama Ayed Mohammed Al-Arja, while they were returning to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing; no information on their whereabouts or condition is available Quds News Network.
West Bank
West Bank
Military Raids and Settler Activity
Israeli forces stormed the town of Al-Laban al-Sharqiyah, south of Nablus Quds News Network. Israeli settlers released livestock near Palestinian homes in Khirbet Al-Kharaba, east of As-Samu', south of Hebron Quds News Network.
Administrative Detention
Israeli authorities extended the administrative detention of Palestinian Abeer Mahmoud Odeh for another four months, the second consecutive extension Quds News Network.
Knesset Legislation
The Knesset approved in first reading a bill to freeze additional Palestinian Authority clearance funds linked to transfers to Gaza, using the funds to compensate Israelis affected by attacks; Israel is already withholding about 14 billion shekels in Palestinian tax revenues Quds News Network.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
US to Delist Syria as State Sponsor of Terror
President Trump announced at the NATO summit in Ankara that the US will remove Syria from the state sponsor of terrorism list, with Secretary of State Rubio informing Congress and triggering a 45-day review Times of IsraelAl Jazeera. Trump praised Syrian leader Sharaa for 'doing an unbelievable job' at unifying the country Times of Israel. Trump also said Sharaa made commitments regarding assistance in dealing with Hezbollah Bint Jbeil News.
IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast
The IMF cut its 2026 world growth forecast to 3%, citing fallout from the Iran war, though AI demand partially offsets the energy shock Al Jazeera.
Trump's NATO Departure
President Trump departed the NATO summit aboard the older Air Force One rather than the new aircraft gifted by Qatar, following a Secret Service security recommendation amid the Iran conflict; Trump denied the switch was security-related Behold IsraelN12 Chat.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
NOSIG
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
Ebola in DR Congo
Confirmed Ebola deaths in DR Congo reached 600, with healthcare workers threatening to strike over delayed payments Al Jazeera.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
UK Activist Arrests
UK police arrested activists at an Israeli-owned drone engine plant Al Jazeera.
Turkey-Israel F-35 Tensions
Turkish President Erdogan derided Israeli and Greek concerns over a potential US sale of F-35s to Turkey, saying their opposition 'has no place in my world' Times of Israel.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
US Politics
A US court ruled that Trump's name must stay off the Kennedy Center during an appeal Al Jazeera. Trump plans to ask the Supreme Court for a new hearing on birthright citizenship after a June ruling against his order Al Jazeera. US Senate nominee Platner halted his campaign after sexual assault allegations Al Jazeera.
US Public Opinion on Israel-Gaza
An AP-NORC poll showed 30% of Americans believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians, with about half of Democrats sharing that view; 58% say the US is too supportive of Israel, and 62% say not supportive enough of Palestinians. Six in ten Jewish Americans view Netanyahu unfavorably Quds News Network.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
NOSIG
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Khamenei Funeral in Iraq
Vast crowds gathered in the Iraqi holy cities of Najaf and Karbala as Khamenei's funeral procession crossed the border, with Iraqis paying tribute Times of Israel.
Pakistan Calls for Restraint
Pakistan urged restraint on all sides amid the US-Iran escalation Times of Israel.
Analysis
Trend
The US-Iran kinetic exchange is accelerating sharply compared to the prior week. Over the past 7 days, the conflict has moved from a tense ceasefire with sporadic IRGC naval harassment to a full-blown, multi-front exchange of strikes on sovereign territory. The protagonist set has expanded: the US is now directly striking Iranian infrastructure deep inland, while the IRGC has opened a new front by targeting US bases in GCC states. This marks a qualitative escalation from the Hormuz-focused tit-for-tat of July 7. The tempo of strikes has increased from isolated incidents to sustained nightly waves, and the diplomatic track—once centered on the NATO summit and backchannel talks—is now overshadowed by Trump's public threats and Iranian defiance. The trend line points toward further horizontal escalation, with the conflict now entangling regional allies.
Narrative
The information environment is dominated by two competing framings. The US/Israeli camp is pushing a narrative of decisive military action to restore deterrence, with Trump's 'twenty times stronger' threat and the infrastructure strikes signaling a shift to a punishment-based strategy. The Iranian camp, led by IRGC and IRNA, frames the US as a treaty-breaker and casts its own strikes on GCC bases as a legitimate 'punitive response,' while also amplifying the Khamenei funeral to mobilize domestic and regional solidarity. A notable gap exists between Trump's claim that Iran 'wants to make a deal so badly' and the IRGC's kinetic actions; the US narrative of Iranian desperation is undercut by the IRGC's demonstrated willingness to escalate horizontally. Hezbollah's Qassem is leveraging the moment to undermine the Lebanese framework agreement, aligning with the Iranian narrative of US-Israeli perfidy.
Synthesis
The IRGC's strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain are not merely retaliation but a deliberate attempt to fracture the US-GCC security architecture by demonstrating that hosting US bases invites direct attack. This is a strategic shift from the April 8 ceasefire logic, where Iran limited its responses to the Hormuz theater. By striking GCC soil, Iran is testing whether Gulf states will pressure Washington to de-escalate or will double down on their US alliance. A counter-reading is that these strikes are symbolic and calibrated to avoid mass casualties, thus serving as a warning shot rather than a true escalation. However, the targeting of Patriot systems and fuel depots suggests an intent to degrade US operational capability, making it more than just signaling. The pattern indicates Iran is willing to risk a wider war to avoid appearing weak during the leadership transition.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 IW GRD pass over Bandar Abbas (orbit 174, descending, ~03:30 UTC 9 Jul) for damage assessment at refinery and port infrastructure.
- 2.Monitor FlightRadar24 for any military or emergency transponder activity near Ali Al Salem Air Base (Kuwait) and Isa Air Base (Bahrain) in the 24 hours following IRGC strike claims.
- 3.Track the Al-Manar TV Telegram channel posting cadence for Hezbollah statements on the framework agreement and any mobilization signals in southern Lebanon.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 24 hours, the US will launch a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting additional infrastructure or IRGC assets.0.85
- 2.By 12 July 2026, the IRGC will conduct another round of strikes on US bases in the GCC, likely in Kuwait or Bahrain, but will avoid targeting Saudi Arabia or the UAE directly.0.70
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through 16 July 2026, with no direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange, as both sides remain focused on the US-Iran front.0.55
Escalation
- 1.Within 72 hours, Iran will attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz using naval mines or swarming attacks, in response to continued US strikes on its infrastructure.0.35
- 2.By 14 July 2026, Hezbollah will launch a significant rocket barrage into northern Israel, timed to coincide with a US strike wave, to open a second front.0.25
- 3.Within 48 hours, a US Navy vessel will be struck by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Persian Gulf, triggering a major escalation and US strikes on Iranian naval assets.0.15