US Strikes Iran Again as Tehran Hits Gulf Bases and Hormuz Remains Shut (Jul 13, 0605 UTC, 0905 Israel) (Morning Edition)
- Issued
- 09:05IL06:05UTC02:05EST
- Window
- 21:04IL18:04UTC14:04EST (-12H)
BLUF
The US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with tanker traffic at 28% of pre-war levels and oil prices spiking over 4%. Israel-Lebanon talks continue in Rome, and a newly uncovered memo reveals Sinwar anticipated a possible Israeli nuclear response to the October 7 attack.
Top Lines
- US CENTCOM initiated a new wave of strikes on Iranian coastal military sites near the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping.
- Iran's IRGC announced retaliatory strikes on US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, with sirens sounding in Gulf states; CENTCOM denied reports of US casualties.
- Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 4% to nearly $79 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with tanker traffic at 28% of pre-war levels.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
The US-Iran tit-for-tat escalation continued with a new US strike wave on Iranian coastal targets and Iranian retaliatory attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut to commercial traffic, driving oil prices sharply higher. Diplomatic efforts continue with Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome, while a pre-October 7 memo by Sinwar shows he anticipated a potential Israeli nuclear strike.
Iran
Iran
US Strikes The US launched a new wave of strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM stated the strikes aimed to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, following President Trump's order to hold Iranian forces accountable Times of Israel. The strikes targeted coastal military sites, including air defenses and radar installations TLDR Iran SITREP.
Iranian Retaliation Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced retaliatory strikes on US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, claiming direct impacts against the US Navy 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain Al-Manar TV. Sirens sounded in Bahrain and other Gulf states N12 Chat. CENTCOM denied reports of US casualties, calling claims of three US military deaths in Kuwait false Bint Jbeil News.
Strait of Hormuz The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with tanker traffic at 28% of pre-war 7-day average (15.6 ships/day) TLDR Iran SITREP. The IRGC reiterated that the Strait is part of Iranian sovereignty and will not allow illegal US interference Al-Manar TVQuds News Network. Oil prices surged over 4%, with Brent crude reaching $78.68-$78.96 Al JazeeraTLDR Iran SITREP.
Diplomatic and Domestic Moves Iran's Foreign Ministry called criticism of its military actions irresponsible, framing them as legitimate self-defense against US and Israeli aggression IRNA. Iran also called on regional countries to prevent the US from using their territories for attacks Bint Jbeil News. Domestically, Iran approved a support package for businesses damaged by US-Israeli attacks IRNA. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran denied rumors of an attack on the Bushehr nuclear plant, stating the facility is safe IRNA. Iran and Saudi Arabia discussed expanding cooperation to improve Umrah services IRNA.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Tunnels Under Beaufort Castle The Israeli Army released footage of what it says are hidden tunnels under Lebanon's historic Beaufort Castle Al Jazeera.
DNA Results for Missing in Wadi al-Saluqi DNA tests confirmed the identities of two missing individuals, Ali Qashmar and Hadi al-Riqa, from bodies found in Wadi al-Saluqi. The family of a third missing person, Jawad Bazzi, stated his results are still pending Bint Jbeil News.
Israel-Lebanon Talks Diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon are ongoing in Rome, though no new details emerged in this reporting window [hot topics].
Gaza
Gaza
Humanitarian Crisis A one-and-a-half-year-old child, Essam Al-Nabih, now weighs just 5 kilograms due to severe malnutrition and hydrocephalus amid Israel's ongoing siege. His family says doctors warn his survival chances are extremely slim, and he remains trapped in Gaza due to closed crossings Quds News Network.
Sinwar Memo A newly uncovered memo written by slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar before October 7 reveals he anticipated Israel might respond with a nuclear strike. The document, dated 2022, outlines plans for a mass assault aimed at capturing territory, expelling residents, and taking hostages Times of Israel.
West Bank
West Bank
Settler Violence Israeli settlers assaulted 79-year-old Ibrahim al-Jabour and his family in Masafer Yatta Al Jazeera. A Russian solidarity activist, Adele Shoko, documented an attack by Israeli settlers on her and a CNN news crew in Sinjil Quds News Network.
Israeli Military Raids Israeli occupation forces stormed the town of Deir Ammar, west of Ramallah Quds News Network.
Fatal Shooting A Palestinian man was shot dead by Israeli soldiers while reportedly trying to cross the Israeli segregation barrier near Bir Nabala, north of occupied Jerusalem, according to the Palestine Red Crescent Society Quds News Network.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
US-Iran Ceasefire in Tatters The June 25 ceasefire memorandum is functionally dead, with both sides stuck in competing interpretations and no enforcement mechanism. The US NATO envoy promised an 'overwhelming' response to Iranian attacks TLDR Iran SITREP.
Iraqi PM to Visit Trump Iraqi Prime Minister is visiting President Trump to deepen US ties amid the escalation TLDR Iran SITREP.
Lindsey Graham's Death Senator Lindsey Graham's death was attributed to a tear in the main artery from the heart caused by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease N12 Chat. Netanyahu commented that in Israel there is grief, while in Iran there is celebration Bint Jbeil News. Graham had been a key figure in Israel-Saudi normalization efforts TLDR Iran SITREP.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
NOSIG
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
NOSIG
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
NOSIG
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Bangkok Pub Fire At least 27 people were killed and 63 injured, many critically, after a fire ripped through a popular pub near Chatuchak market in Bangkok around midnight on Monday Al JazeeraTimes of IsraelIsrael Hayom.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Qatar Former Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, who reshaped Qatar's economy, passed away aged 74 on Sunday Al Jazeera.
Saudi Arabia Iran and Saudi Arabia discussed expanded cooperation to improve Umrah services IRNA.
Analysis
Trend
The US-Iran kinetic exchange is accelerating in tempo and geographic spread. Over the trailing 7 days, the conflict has shifted from unclaimed strikes on southern Iran and Israeli-focused operations to direct, acknowledged US strikes on Iranian coastal military sites and Iranian retaliatory attacks on US bases in three Gulf states. The protagonist set has expanded: Iran is now directly targeting US assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, while the US is conducting named strike waves near the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the Strait has deepened, with tanker traffic dropping from 35% to 28% of pre-war levels in 24 hours, indicating a rapid degradation of maritime security. This window shows a qualitative escalation from shadow war to open, multi-front exchanges.
Narrative
The US is framing its strikes as defensive measures to protect freedom of navigation, with CENTCOM statements emphasizing the degradation of Iran's ability to attack shipping. Iran, through IRGC and state media, is pushing a narrative of sovereignty and self-defense, claiming the Strait of Hormuz as its territorial waters and portraying US actions as illegal interference. The Iranian framing is winning in the regional information environment, as evidenced by sirens and panic in Gulf states, which amplify the perception of US vulnerability. The gap between reporting and evidence is stark: Iran claims direct hits on the US 5th Fleet HQ, while CENTCOM denies casualties, yet no independent verification exists. The Sinwar memo leak serves a separate Israeli narrative, justifying preemptive or escalatory postures by suggesting Hamas anticipated a nuclear response.
Synthesis
The US is deliberately escalating to force a diplomatic off-ramp on its terms, but Iran is reading this as a test of its deterrence and is responding in kind, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that risks a wider Gulf war. The evidence is in the pattern: each US strike wave is followed by an Iranian retaliatory salvo within hours, and the geographic expansion to Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan shows Iran is willing to attack US assets across the region to demonstrate reach. The US denial of casualties, even as sirens sound, suggests a managed escalation, but Iran's public claims of hits on the 5th Fleet HQ are designed to erode US credibility and embolden proxies. A counter-reading is that both sides are engaging in calibrated, symbolic strikes to avoid all-out war, but the rapid decline in Hormuz traffic and the oil price spike indicate the economic costs are already forcing a crisis point that neither side can easily walk back from.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check FlightRadar24 for any military or civilian aircraft movements near Bandar Abbas (OIKB) and Qeshm Island (OIKQ) in the next 24 hours to detect potential Iranian air defense activity or US reconnaissance flights.
- 2.Review Sentinel-1 SAR imagery over the Strait of Hormuz from the next available pass (orbit 174, ~2026-07-14T02:30 UTC) to identify any new naval deployments or oil slick patterns indicating ship attacks.
- 3.Monitor the Telegram channel 'Middle East Spectator' for posting cadence and geolocated imagery of the US strikes on Iranian coastal targets near Bandar-e-Jask to verify damage assessments.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 24 hours, the US will conduct another wave of strikes on Iranian coastal targets near the Strait of Hormuz.0.75
- 2.Before 2026-07-14T06:00 UTC, Iran will launch another retaliatory missile or drone attack on a US base in the Gulf region.0.80
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through 2026-07-16T00:00 UTC, with no resumption of direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.60
Escalation
- 1.Within 48 hours, Iran will attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz by mining or attacking a commercial vessel, triggering a US naval response.0.35
- 2.Before 2026-07-15T12:00 UTC, a US base in Bahrain or Kuwait will suffer confirmed casualties from an Iranian strike, leading to a US threat of ground operations.0.25
- 3.By 2026-07-16T00:00 UTC, Hezbollah will launch a significant rocket barrage into northern Israel, exploiting US distraction in the Gulf.0.15